overconfidence (short)
Overconfidence has long plagued me. I see the world in one way and think the world must therefore by that way. This is difficult because sometimes I am just right, and so confidence is positively reinforced. Another difficulty is that when I'm wrong or partially wrong, sometimes in the past (I'm substantially better now) I might try to deflect the pain of this with excuses.
A frame I like to have on developing virtue is "what prompt prefill would help with this situation?"
Let's list 3 situations where I might be overconfident and then give a prefill.
- This project will be done by EOD.
- Prefill: Beware planning fallacy. Things usually take longer than you feel they will.
- My jacket is black, even if someone tells me it's not black.
- Prefill: Do a outside view calculation: how reasonable is the counterparty, and how much expertise do you each have in this area?
- Bob: X is hard, Me: it doesn't seem so hard!
- Prefill: Is this a situation where I or Bob has more direct experience?
- X is good.
- Prefill: There are probably considerations you've missed.
- I perceive myself to have acted well, but Bob tells me I have acted poorly (e.g., I have hurt Bob).
- Prefill: Bob is saying that he's hurt. There is no way he's wrong about this. Please introspect about if there's anything you've done that contributed to this, hold off on feeling terrible about things, and generally apply What should you do when you've hurt someone?.
Some more general prefills:
- Beware overconfidence.
- Default to predicting there is some truth in what counterparties say.
Being wary of overconfidence does not mean however that you should refuse to have opinions though (h/t L). Just state your credence level when sharing an opinion. Refusing to have an opinion makes it more annoying to talk to you, and can be a not nice way of refusing to engage with someone.